Iran: who really wants the war?

 

In the beginning of January US Central Command (CENTCOM)- the Combatant command responsible for overseeing US security interest in the Middle East, Central Asia and North Africa- has standard planning objectives that provide the president with a set of military option to deal with Iran.

There are essentially three options for the President.

•  Punish Iran for its involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan, and support for terrorist.
• Set back Iran’s nuclear programme as significantly as possible.
• Contain and change the Iranian regime.

Those options are providing reason for Obama administrative that Iran is the bad boy from Mid-East. But everybody knows, Iran military power especially the capability in creating nuclear weapon will endanger Israel geo-politics in Mid-East, that’s the reason why Iranian regime should be determinate.

Economic sanction from the UN, EU and other US allies has been too risky, because it will not only hurt Iranian economic but also their economic. The sanction for Iran is targeting Iran’s financial, energy sector and foreign investment between Iran and multi-national corporations, including banks and other financial firms. Since Iranian economic power is oil, the focus of the sanction is to cut any oil transaction with Iran.

For real Iran has produce 9% from all of the world oil consumption. China as the main consumer of Iranian oil will think twice before approving administratively the sanction for Iran, China one or another will never endanger their economic for US interest.

But Obama administration is keen to keep economic sanction as the primer way to set up Iran to negotiate about their nuclear weapon project. Why? The sanction meant to show a jumpy Israel that there is an alternative other than military operation. Israel is in the real mood for war with Iran. Last month Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan a chemistry expert and a director of the Natanz nuclear facility in Central Iran has been killed. The Iranian believe it was Mossad, “Who else?” said an Iranian Journalist.

Israel is planning to attack Iran nuclear facility and nuclear scientist. But war in Iran will bring a regional conflagration to the Middle East and maybe around the world, which Obama doesn’t want to.

In the recent phone call with Israel Prime Minister, Obama have warned strongly against an attack. The chairman of the joint staff General Martin Dempsey is about to visit Israel, ostensibly to share intelligence but also to ram home the message from his boss. But the possibility that Israel is going nuts and attack Iran is still worrying the US, that’s why on January the 13^th the Pentagon announced that they stationing 15,000 soldiers in Kuwait and 9,000 in Israel. War with Iran will be a bloody one, Iran has a good soldier especially in the Navy and Cavalry, and they have a long-range missile and maybe a nuclear weapon, which Israel already had.

Despite the saber-rattling, neither America nor Iran wants confrontation just yet, cause both of them are not crazy enough to start a war, but Israel does.

January 2012, the European-USA economic crisis, officially hit Indonesia.

6 January 2012, I have a meeting with one of my firm biggest client, which I cannot mention the company name under official circumstances. This client is a major leading firm in house goods in Europe, they cutting the budget for brand marketing in Indonesia. So they cut some particular contract with my firm, not all the contract, the impact is my firm should cut the contract with some vendors around Indonesia. It is a bad news, for some people its horrible. For me, the nightmare will start in 9 January 2012 when my job is to call each vendor and say the bad news that they are fired.

This budget cutting is not happened only to my client firm. Most of foreigners firms made the same financial policy; they were cutting the budget as much as they can to keep the firm run on the right track. The crisis in Europe and US has officially hit Indonesia.

What will affect us? Most of the contract will be not the same; the cost will be lower than before. Worst part is some firm will start cutting the employee contract to make the firm financial account stay save, and it’s legal, that’s what some firm in Europe and US has done.

Jobless will be an issue in 2012, the number of unemployment will be a considerable size for the government. The private sector especially foreign firm will be vulnerable against this crisis. Yes European and US banks burst a lot of bailout money for the private sector, but I don’t see that money reach Indonesia. Most of the money is docked in China and India to run the factories. Indonesia clearly stills a vital market for any products, but that fact not goanna makes the foreign firm put their money to secure Indonesia economy.

Indonesia in time of crisis will be the most vulnerable country in South East Asia, our debt has reach $1.816, 85 Trillion, most of the money from the debt is using for public sector especially infrastructure which doesn’t shown a significant result, the bridges is fragile, the roads is asymmetries, and Jawa-Sumatra bridge mega project vanish at lips, no realistic effort has been take. The majority of government infrastructure projects are unpropitious.

Before the crisis comes to Indonesia, the government should pour more effective money to the private sector, to boost the business and put jobs save at the office.

But pour more money will not guarantee we will save from the crisis. The two major problems that put our economic in the fragile position are corruption and ineffective government policy. This are a classic issue, but that is a time bomb that will blows our economic soon or later, we not goanna save from anything if this two major problems still on the desk.

The crisis is already here, it just doesn’t feel yet, but the option to support the private sector should be the resolution of Indonesia economic in 2012. Ministry of trade Gita Wirjawan and Ministry of Finance Agus Martowardojo has realize the situation and launces several policy to counter the crisis. Bank of Indonesia high commission several times has give warning to government. Mid or end of 2012 will be the peak of crisis, lets hope we can counter it sooner, so it can tackle the massive jobless in Indonesia.

The ideology of Radicalism is still there.

Are we safe from terrorism? As long as I know there is only Solo attack that happened in 25 September 2011 in Church, Solo Mid Java. After that terrorist doesn’t really have attacked us.

 Are we safer? The head of BNPT Ansad Bai believe this condition is an effect of the massive attacked conduct by Detachment 88 that cooperates with BNPT, they have done several attacked in Java and Sumatera along 2011, its about 11 attacked and some clandestine operations. We cannot argue with that statement, yes indeed we see so many attacked conducted by Detachment 88, and so many terrorist died during the attacked. But that is not a measure that concludes that we are safer.

Even though for the last few months we are free from terrorist attack, it doesn’t mean we are safe. The main focus of the counter terrorism in Indonesia still on tangible target, just like a bull in China Shop they forget about the power of the intangible, specifically ideology. The ideology of radicalism still on the air everybody can breathe it, we not save, and they just not attack yet.

Ansad Bai stated that: we couldn’t beat terrorism only by assaults them physically, we need to counter the ideology of radicalism also. But I don’t really sure Ansad Bai know what he said. He just repeat what snob analyst said on TV.

Counter terrorism in particular counter ideology is a hard matter, and no one seems believe that BNPT is credible enough for countering ideology of radicalism. Moderate Muslim Organizations such as NU (Nahdatul Ulama) and Muhammadiyah has take an advance movement handling this matter. NU has doing a significant work for countering radical Ideology such as their Inter Mosques program that provide room for dialogue, to counter the spreads of radical ideology in the mosque. This dialogue is a prototype of counter ideology of radicalism, and it shown a remarkable result.

Meanwhile the authority should follow to play soft, they should focusing more on how to help the radical group or person to increasing their social abilities, especially in economy. Economy is not major formula of radicalism, but it’s still a vital component for radicalism, most of or maybe all of the “Penganten” (suicide bomber) are come from the poorest family in the rural area, uneducated and very poor, this type of person are easily to influence by radicalism ideology. This soft approach can be implemented through a development program that engaging the radical group or area that have high potential to produces radical people. Unfortunately, we never heard this type of program has been produce by the authority, Indonesian authority especially who takes part in counter terrorism has satisfied with tangible achievement such as how many terrorist that they have killed.

The counter ideology of radicalism should be a high priority project for the long-term counter terrorism, assuming that the ideology is the primary motivation of any radical act. To do so, the Moderate Muslim Organization and the authority should play shoulder to shoulder to develop join venture project for counter ideology of radicalism. The BNPT as a National Department who have mandate from the President and using taxpayer money to run an ineffective program, now should follow what NU and other Moderate Muslim Organization has done.