Pentingnya memotong subsidi bbm.

Sebulan terakhir, Indonesia mengalami minggu yang membingungkan. Ratusan orang turun ke jalan di Jakarta dan beberapa kota lain menyuarakan kekecewaan atas rencana pemerintah untuk memangkas subsidi bbm, efek dari pemangkasan itu adalah naiknya harga bbm tipe Ron-88 atau premium dari Rp4500 ke Rp6000. Perlu diingat pada tahun 2008 sampai 2009 harga premium sudah menyentuh Rp6000.

Keputusan anggota dewan Indonesia yang memungkin harga bbm naik dengan alasan kenaikan harga minyak dunia sangat menyesatkan, bukan hanya karena menggantungkan harga bbm kepada Petropolitik global tapi juga menyisihkan alasan-alasan domestik mengenai pentingnya memotong subsidi bbm. Alasan yang saya maksud  bukan hanya masalah kesehatan APBN atau atau kesalahan alokasi subsidi. Saya ingin mengajukan beberapa alasan yang menurut saya krusial mengenai pemotongan subsidi bbm. Objective saya adalah menolak Negara memberi subsidi se-sen-pun untuk bbm (minyak fossil), dengan lima alasan yang akan saya uraikan berikut ini.

Pertama, bbm atau bahan bakar fosil merupakan tipe bahan bakar paling bermasalah, bukan hanya karena keterbatasannya, tapi juga efeknya terhadap lingkungan hidup. Tanah dalam radius lebih dari 5km yang dilewati oleh sumur pengeboran akan kehilangan C-organik (humus) yang berfungsi untuk menjaga kesuburan tanah. Setiap pengeboran memiliki resikonya sendiri terhadap lingkungan hidup, pengeboran lepas pantai juga membahayakan ekosistem laut dan pantai. Di Indonesia Agripolitik lebih kuat daripada Petropolitik sehingga membahayakan agrikultur demi minyak adalah fitnah terhadap identitas nasional. Menambah kilang minyak didarat akan membunuh produktivitas lahan pertanian, karena itulah kita harus berpikir ulang untuk menambah kilang terutama di darat.

Kedua, bbm tipe ron-88 memiliki jumlah polutan yang paling ganas, mengandung Logam pb (timbal), Merkuri dan SO4. Paska 1998 jumlah penderita hipertensi, kanker paru-paru, ganguan pernapasan meningkat drastis (belum termasuk penyakit lain yang disebabkan timbal, seperti kanker). Emisi kendaraan bermotor telah menyebabkan polusi udara sampai 70% di Jakarta dan beberapa kota besar. Dibawah ini adalah kue polusi di Jakarta yang dikeluarkan Pemda DKI pada 2010.

Ketiga, kemajuan ekonomi  telah  menyulut pasar otomotif. Saya akan menggunakan kurva 2004 karena setelah tahun itu penggunaan kendaraan bermotor terus meningkat 10% sampai 15% pertahun. Pengunaan bbm oleh kendaraan bermotor “menggila” setelah 2004.

Karena murahnya harga bbm penggunaan kendaraan bermotor cenderung tidak efektif, pemborosan terjadi dari tahun ke tahun. Sementara sumur yang bisa dobor semakin sedikit, karena ada beberapa kilang yang terlalu beresiko untuk di bor.

Tapi konsumsi bbm di Indonesia tidak sebanding dengan kemampuan perusahaan tambang untuk memproduksi bbm. Dibawah ini adalah perbandingan konsumsi bbm ron-88 (premium) dan produksi minyak mentah yang belum diolah.

Dibawah ini adalah chart forecast GDP negara Pasifik dari Citi Investment yang menaruh Indonesia dua inci di bawah India.

Kondisi membuktikan bahwa sektor swasta di Indonesia berkembang pesat, perkembangan ini akan meminta mendorong permintaan energi, bbm sebagai energi paling murah akan terus diperas, sementara kilang berkurang, kita akan berada di ambang krisis energi.

Keempat, murahnya harga bbm telah menghalangi perkembangan energi alternative yang ramah lingkungan seperti geothermal. Mengenai energy Geothermal: http://www.google.co.id/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=energi+geothermal+indonesia&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CDIQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fgeothermal.itb.ac.id%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2FSekilas_tentang_Panas_Bumi.pdf&ei=y4V4T-7fPInYrQeSiuWKDQ&usg=AFQjCNESw1OfE57fUn60saHwoWN1W3x2yQ

Dari file pdf diatas saya harap kita bisa melihat bagaimana mudahnya produksi energi geothermal, dan biaya operasionalnya sangat murah dibandingkan dengan sisa minyak mentah yang biaya lifting dan reproduksi semakin mahal. Perkembangan energi Geothermal sebagaimana energi alternatif lainnya menjadi lumpuh bukan hanya karena tidak adanya pengembangan dari pemerintah, tetapi karena energi dari bahan bakar fossil jauh lebih murah, sehingga menghalangi manuver pasar. Potensi Energi Geothermal kita terbesar di DUNIA! 30-40% energi panas bumi ada di Indonesia. Jawa sebagai pulau yang dipenuhi gunung aktif adalah lahan dari Geothermal. Tetapi Geothermal menjadi tidak masuk akal, karena dengan Rp4500 anda sudah mendapat 1 liter energi.

Kelima, Logika yang harus kita gunakan untuk minyak fossil adalah logika komoditi, kita harus memperkaya diri atas minyak fossil yang kita punya, menaruhnya pada standard jual minyal dunia yang sangat menguntungkan. Negara harus mampu mengalokasikan keuntungannya ke sektor vital seperti agrikultur, pendidikan, infrastruktur dan kesehatan. Bukan membiarkan minyak fossil digunakan secara tidak arif di pasar domestik. Satu dekade kedepan hanya minyak fossil dan gas bumi yang bisa menjadi lumbung uang bagi Indonesia, kita tidak seperti Jepang atau Jerman yang punya industri kuat, atau China dan India yang punya pasar buruh untuk produksi massal.

Memotong subsidi minyak fossil membuat kita bisa menyimpan Fund Trust lebih tinggi, untuk membayar hutang Negara yang sudah mencapai 1800T. Mengenai hutang Nasional lihat http://www.bi.go.id/web/en/Statistik/Statistik+Utang+Luar+Negeri+Indonesia/

Apalagi ekonomi Indonesia sedang dalam puncaknya setelah 1998, ekonomi menguat karena visi dari sektor swasta bukan inisiatif pemerintah. Itu bisa kita lihat dari pendapatan negara sangat kecil, lihat tabel PDB beberapa negara per-satu juta USD dibawah ini:

Dari chart diatas Indonesia berada dibawah Turki dan diatas Swiss, dan itu sangat mengecewakan. Pendapatan nasional terbesar adalah dari ekspor energi, Indonesia tidak mendapatkan penghasilan yang mencukupi dari sektor pajak, Indonesia adalah negara yang paling sedikit memajaki rakyatnya. Berbeda dengan AS dan Jepang yang kaya dari pajak sektor swasta. Dengan menjadikan minyak fossil sebagai komoditi Indonesia bisa meningkatkan PDB sampai pada level 30% pada 2013.

Visi menaikkan harga bbm adalah menguatkan fund trust (kas pasif), massive-nya perkembangan ekonomi swasta telah membawa Indonesia pada kekuatan pasar domestik, orang yang hidup dengan $2 sampai $5 perhari jumlah 120 juta orang, kebutuhan akan bbm akan terus melonjak dan akan mencapai titik dimana kita harus mengimpor lebih banyak bbm. Itu berbahaya untuk ekonomi dan kehidupan sosial (kesehatan dll). Kalau tidak dinaikkan penggunaan bbm akan menjadi bom waktu di Indonesia.

Dari kelima alasan diatas, saya menarik kesimpulan bahwa menaikkan bbm adalah sebuah kebutuhan yang tidak terelakkan. Sementara kenaikan sebesar 30% atau Rp1500 adalah langkah yang masuk akal karena tidak akan mengubah struktur ekonomi, tapi akan merubah struktur etik penggunaan bahan bakar terutama untuk kendaraan pribadi, dengan kata lain orang akan menggunakan kendaraan bermotor dengan bijak, tidak boros. Dilain pihak industri kecil dan menengah akan bertahan dengan penyesuaian harga produksi, distribusi dan harga jual.

Tetapi saya sampai pada satu kekhwatiran bahwa pemerintahan SBY akan menggunakan kenaikan harga bbm ini sebagai alat politik, ada kemungkinan 2014 pemerintah akan menurunkan harga bbm untuk memenangkan pemilu, yang sudah mereka lakukan pada pemilu 2009. Lagipula belum ada satupun partai politik yang menjadikan pemberhentian subsidi bbm sebagai agenda politik. Bahkan PDI-P yang tadinya saya pikir akan mengutamakan sektor agrikultur malah bermain di politik bbm.

Kekhawatiran saya tidak selesai sampai disitu, pertanyaan berikutnya apakah pemerintah mampu untuk mengolah dana keuntungan dari pemotongan subsidi bbm lalu mengalokasikannya dalam kebijakan waras selain BLTS? Sementara kepercayaan rakyat kepada pemerintah yang tengah disorot kasus korupsi dan miss management sudah pada titik terendah. Kerendahan titik kepercayaan kepada pemerintah itulah yang menurut saya menjadi penggerak utama demonstrasi anti-kenaikan bbm, dengan kata lain alasan penolakan pemotongan subsidi bbm terletak pada kondisi psikologis bukan fakta bahwa secara ekonomi rakyat tidak siap, pada tahun 2008 dimana ekonomi swasta di Indonesia ikut digoyang oleh krisis kredit di Amerika, ekonomi tetap berjalan dengan harga bbm Rp6000. Keluwesan ekonomi rakyat sudah dibuktikan oleh sejarah, lagipula kenaikan Rp1500 tidak akan “meresahkan” pasar.

Ketergantungan pada subsidi bbm akan membunuh kita pelan-pelan, kita harus membuang sedikit-demi-sedikit subsidi bbm yang menyesatkan ini. Tentu ini adalah bagian dari sikap saya terhadap kebijakan energi di Indonesia, dan sikap ini tidaklah kaku sangat siap untuk berdiskusi dengan fakta dan nasihat.

Terimakasih.

January 2012, the European-USA economic crisis, officially hit Indonesia.

6 January 2012, I have a meeting with one of my firm biggest client, which I cannot mention the company name under official circumstances. This client is a major leading firm in house goods in Europe, they cutting the budget for brand marketing in Indonesia. So they cut some particular contract with my firm, not all the contract, the impact is my firm should cut the contract with some vendors around Indonesia. It is a bad news, for some people its horrible. For me, the nightmare will start in 9 January 2012 when my job is to call each vendor and say the bad news that they are fired.

This budget cutting is not happened only to my client firm. Most of foreigners firms made the same financial policy; they were cutting the budget as much as they can to keep the firm run on the right track. The crisis in Europe and US has officially hit Indonesia.

What will affect us? Most of the contract will be not the same; the cost will be lower than before. Worst part is some firm will start cutting the employee contract to make the firm financial account stay save, and it’s legal, that’s what some firm in Europe and US has done.

Jobless will be an issue in 2012, the number of unemployment will be a considerable size for the government. The private sector especially foreign firm will be vulnerable against this crisis. Yes European and US banks burst a lot of bailout money for the private sector, but I don’t see that money reach Indonesia. Most of the money is docked in China and India to run the factories. Indonesia clearly stills a vital market for any products, but that fact not goanna makes the foreign firm put their money to secure Indonesia economy.

Indonesia in time of crisis will be the most vulnerable country in South East Asia, our debt has reach $1.816, 85 Trillion, most of the money from the debt is using for public sector especially infrastructure which doesn’t shown a significant result, the bridges is fragile, the roads is asymmetries, and Jawa-Sumatra bridge mega project vanish at lips, no realistic effort has been take. The majority of government infrastructure projects are unpropitious.

Before the crisis comes to Indonesia, the government should pour more effective money to the private sector, to boost the business and put jobs save at the office.

But pour more money will not guarantee we will save from the crisis. The two major problems that put our economic in the fragile position are corruption and ineffective government policy. This are a classic issue, but that is a time bomb that will blows our economic soon or later, we not goanna save from anything if this two major problems still on the desk.

The crisis is already here, it just doesn’t feel yet, but the option to support the private sector should be the resolution of Indonesia economic in 2012. Ministry of trade Gita Wirjawan and Ministry of Finance Agus Martowardojo has realize the situation and launces several policy to counter the crisis. Bank of Indonesia high commission several times has give warning to government. Mid or end of 2012 will be the peak of crisis, lets hope we can counter it sooner, so it can tackle the massive jobless in Indonesia.

What’s left for China and Kim Jong Un

Officially, Kim Jong Un is the leader of North Korea, he is the successor of his Dear Leader and Father, he is crossing two of his eldest brother. The eldest son who was a favorite to be a successor is Kim Jong Nam, but he is a Don Juan of Macau, spending money only for gambling and women, he will do anything to satisfy his own nuke. The North Korea irascible generals are worried if Kim Jong Nam rules the country.

The Great Leader under reasonable option chose the younger son to be the next leader of North Korea. But the 20-something young man is facing so many problems with less experience. The doubt over him will start among his own family. Young Kim will have to deal the Dear Leader’s powerful and demanding wife Kim Ok, his extremely devious aunt Kim Kyung-hui and her equally scheming husband, Jang Song-thaek. Jang is one of only four vice-chairman of the National Defense Commission, the holy of the hollies of North Korea; the chairman is, of course the Dear Leader, who else.

The family issue is not the major problems of Kim Jong Un, the nightmare is the economy deficit that has turn North Korea into the poorest country in the East Asia, more over if we compare to their rich and wealth neighbor South Korea. This economy issue is also worry Pyongyang one and only ally, Beijing.

The Chinese is worry if the economic in North Korea went bad, it will drive massive refugee from North Korea to the China territory. Beijing has offer they proposal for North Korea economic renovation, which gently has been refused by the Great Leader, the proposal mark that the North Korea should embrace the new market economic without change their political view, that’s what China do. The Great Leader is a solid follower of Chief Mao, he doesn’t believe with Den Xiaoping way. But Kim Jong-Un, he was attending the International School of Bern in Switzerland, he is quite familiar with the western economic culture, there is a huge possibility he will accept the Chinese proposal.

The other issue that faced by the successor of the Great Leader is the nukes. The western countries in particular United State, is goanna doing everything to stop the nuke program held by North Korea. The Six Party Talk (China, US, Japan, South Korea, North Korea, Russia) doesn’t show any significant result. China has shown a negative respond over North Korea nuclear and missile test in 2009, China also support the UN sanction over Pyongyang. Stability over the Korean peninsula and the East Asia are important for China to secure their market and trade mission. Maybe China will let the North Korea have the nukes, what China is try to say is “don’t use it, and don’t make war. Not yet.”

Kim Jong-un will need the China support, not only to maintain relation that his father has run, but also to gain respect from the military; most of the North Korea high-ranking military officers have strong ties with China. And to fix the economy, since North Korea wouldn’t let IMF or World Bank entering the country, the China money will play the biggest part to save the North Korea economy, in return China will make Pyongyang just like Beijing, a short of capitalist with a commie spirit.

China or India.

An Economist put a coin on the table and roll it up, and said to you “which economy goanna role the world after the western? China or India?!”

Lately it will be absolutely a hard option, putting your bet on which economy will be the successor of the western economic, assuming the western economic in other way are a pig shit.

The coin is still spinning, and we still cannot make up our choice. So lets make a short talk about the coin, I mean China and India in the context of economic power.

Last month at Changi Airport I bought a TIME Magazine, the editorial headline is Chindia (China-India). I spend my flight from Singapore to Jakarta reading that magazine. I almost finish the main article when the tires of the plane hit the ground, I stop reading, but frankly this Chindia keep ringing on my head for the next two weeks.

Right now, 40% of people who living in planet earth live in China and India, ten years from now it will be about 50% of the world population are living in China and India. Most of the world famous brand and product have their workshop in China or India, Nike, Apple, Suzuki, Microsoft etc. 50% of the world consumptions products are made in China and India. Off course both of them have the largest working class in the world.

We also must aware that China and India are in competition to be the world leading economic. So what I like to do right now is to compare China and India, it’s only a short comparison with a simple data, using three variables Infrastructure, financial and politic.

Lets start with infrastructure. China have better infrastructure than India, there is a fast train that connect Beijing and Shanghai, and line of beggars                   fill the road between Delhi and Mumbai. China has doing better on the infrastructure because the government has order the Banks to fund most of the infrastructure to support the economy, for example the Chengdu district that has turn magically in a short time to be an industrial city. Even Intel has transferred much of its manufacturing base from Shanghai to Chengdu. The Chengdu blueprint is legally under the command of the Chinese government and its goal is to support the global capitalism. Their India counterparts still struggling building the public infrastructure, India even cannot build the road to support the business, and the public transportation in India are overload with people. The power of India is not on the infrastructure but most on the human resources, most of managerial staffs multi national companies in New York, London or other big cities are Indian. The Indian government is lack of capacity to maintain the public infrastructure, for example what happened in the Calcutta hospital last week, 30 people died tragically on the fire accident, the hospital has lack of mechanism to handle fire.

After infrastructure let’s turn to financial, in particular banking system. The issue of China Banks is the government interferes too much on the credit management, the government even told whom and under what matter the credit proposal should be approve by the banks, of course under some circumstances some of anti government people or organization are not allowed to gain bank fund. The banks in China turn into little more than arms of government policy, which make Chinese banks more vulnerable and less efficient in allocating resources. Indian Banks, on the other hand, are run more commercial basis. They have greater expertise in risk management and credit analysis, they tend to lend money more intelligently and have stronger balance sheets.  Moreover this situation will lead India to become more powerful in Economy better than the Chinese. Mark Young, head of Asian Banks at rating agency Fitch in Singapore said to Time “Indian Banks are stronger. There is a clear link the health of the Banking sector and the capability to support the economic growth” so the financial sector most likely will support the Indian economic? Not so fast.

The last is a vital subject, which is politics. As a country that had been through a long struggle to stand as a nation, China face more than we can imagine. China has becoming a country who had their own view in politic, and that view doesn’t always satisfied the Western country especially the US. The US believes that the China political ethic has against the US political agenda, we are not talking about the Human Rights or the freedom of speech; we talk about the China missile that is capable to reach US territory, and of course their disputes with Taiwan and some of ASEAN Nations in South China Sea.

In the other side, India has be a loyal ally for the US, US has give India any access to build their value whether its in politic or economic. Intel has built their manufacture in China, but their technocrats stay in India. But inside, India has internal problem, such as Kashmir and long historical dispute with Pakistan. China has Tibet and some clandestine political opposition.

The coin still spinning on the table. The economist doesn’t really sure when it goanna stop and which side of the coin goanna take control the world economic. So do I.