Where the Jasmine revolution will go?

 

Every intellectual seem share a common view about the Jasmine revolution in Egypt and Tunisia. The Jasmine revolution is a package of social movement that contains with specific agenda and conscious act. There are some components that make Jasmine revolution more valuable that other uprising in Mid East. First the protesters are reluctant to use violent act. Second there is a strong consciousness among protesters about what they fight for, they main focus is to topple the corrupt regime and demand for new order that provide an equal opportunities in all level of social life. Third the massive role of social media such as Twitter and Facebook is proof that the protesters need to connect its reason and share motivation, moreover their projecting a common purpose. However the Jasmine revolution in Egypt and Tunisia are not done yet, its still struggling to find form for their revolution, even after Mubarak and Ben Ali fall.

The objectives of Jasmine revolution are far much more difficult to manage rather than other social unrest in Mid-East. For example, the uprising in Yemen and Libya are easily taken over by tribes and sect issue. The opposition leaders in Yemen is still struggling to find a common reason about the revolution, even after Ali Abdullah Saleh step down. On the other hand, the petro politic within Libya has provoked arms rebellion against Khadaffi. Those issue in Libya and Yemen, has over shadow the main problems in that regions, which are lack of economic infrastructure, lack of administrative to support the economic, massive corruptions, poverty, low of healthy standard, inequality, etc. Meanwhile in Egypt and Tunisia those issue are the major topic.

  In Tunisia al-Nahda who won the 90 seats in the parliament is a moderate Muslim Party, al-Nahda gain support from moderate Muslim and minority group. The agenda of al-Nahda are economic and administrative reform. In Egypt the Ihkwanul Muslim won the parliament election. There are some factors why Ikhwan gain so many seats in the parliament. Firs they have a well support by the rural communities who fell the secular political system that has been run by Mubarak are the main cause of the social economic chaos in Egypt, even though that kind of supporters doesn’t really necessary agree with the Ihkwan Political agenda. Second, the secular and moderate Muslim in Cairo and other big cities in Egypt boycott the election due to the affair between the Ikhwan and the interim authority Gen. Tantowi. The secular and moderate Muslim demands the military to step from power before the election, they doesn’t want the military to host the election. The Military govern Egypt after Mubarak under SCARF (Supreme Council of the Armed Forces).

The secular, moderate Muslim and the minority Christian koptic, afraid the Ikhwan will apply the Sharia law and will reduce the right of minority Christian and secular, moderate Muslim. But the Ikhwanul Muslim leader said “they will cover the social-economic issue first before applying the sharia law.” Ikhwan indeed share the common view of Jasmine revolution, they realize that applying sharia law in short coming will damage their popularity, however the sharia law is the main political agenda for Ikhwan. But we also can see that there is an internal conflict within the Ikhwan, some members of Ikhwan is show a moderate attitude, named Abdel Moenim Abolfotoh a moderate doctor who have strong ties with Ikhwan. The darling of revolution Mr Elbaradei supports Mr Abolfotoh. “Abolfotoh is different, he listens to what you have to say. He is a conservative personally but does not want to impose his views on others.” – Elbaradei.

The process of the Egyptian Jasmine revolution is still long; it will include a dramatic and epic process. None of the organization in Arab whether based on Islam or Nationalism can avoid the tsunami revolution; it will shave all kind of social error and demand for new order.